In the FCS Huddle: FCS players could impact the Super Bowl
NCAA Football Betting Lines
01/24/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nick Collins made one of the bigger plays when the Green Bay Packers defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers in last year's Super Bowl.
In two weeks, plenty of former FCS players have the opportunity to be game- changers, particularly those from the NFC champion New York Giants, who will play the AFC champion New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI on Feb. 5 in Indianapolis.
The former FCS players will hope to live up to Collins' interception return for a touchdown in Green Bay's win last February. Collins, one of six Packers on that team who played collegiately in the FCS, is from Bethune-Cookman.
Perhaps none of this year's FCS players in the Super Bowl has a better chance of starring than Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz, who keeps building on the breakout season in which he had 82 receptions for a team-record 1,536 yards and nine touchdowns.
Cruz is in his second season out of Massachusetts. In Sunday's NFC Championship Game win, he caught 10 passes for 142 yards against a San Francisco 49ers defense that was one of the best in the NFL this season.
"We always believed," Cruz said. "I don't even know how to put this into words as far as what this means to me. We weren't just happy to be here and it's just been an amazing ride. But we're not done yet."
Another of the key Giants is seventh-year running back Brandon Jacobs from Southern Illinois. The bruising starter, who is closing in on 5,000 career yards, often operates behind left guard/center Kevin Boothe, who is in his sixth season out of Cornell.
Other Giants from FCS schools are special teams standout Zak DeOssie, a fifth- year linebacker out of Brown; fourth-year cornerback Michael Coe from Alabama State; wide receiver Ramses Barden, in his third season out of Cal Poly; and Richmond rookie practice player Martin Parker, a defensive tackle.
The Patriots have three starters from FCS programs: Dan Connolly, a 6-foot-4, 313-pound center who is in his sixth season out of Southeast Missouri State; fifth-year safety James Ihedigbo from Massachusetts; and cornerback Kyle Arrington, who is in his third season out of Hofstra's former program.
Arrington, who was third on the team with 77 tackles during the regular season, is backed by Antwaun Molden, a fourth-year cornerback out of Eastern Kentucky.
In addition, the Patriots have linebackers Tracy White, in his ninth season out of Howard, and Dane Fletcher, in his second season out of Montana State.
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Flamengo inked Chile defender Marcos Gonzalez on a three-year contract Tuesday from Universidad de Chile. The Brazilian-born Gonzalez started his club career with Universidad de Chile, and later pla
<< Ovechkin skipping All-Star Game
Arlington, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Washington Capitals general manager George
McPhee told reporters Tuesday that forward Alexander Ovechkin will not
participate in this weekend's NHL All-Star Game.
"Because he's a suspended player
<< Lampard suffers calf injury
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chelsea revealed the extent of Frank
Lampard's injury Tuesday, stating that the midfielder is unlikely to feature
for the Blues in Saturday's FA Cup clash against QPR after scans showed a
slight
<< Mariners sign Millwood to minor league deal
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Seattle Mariners have signed veteran
pitcher Kevin Millwood to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring
training.
Millwood made nine starts with the Colorado Rockies late last season
<< AC Milan defender Taiwo joins QPR on loan
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mark Hughes secured his first signing as
QPR manager, landing defender Taye Taiwo from AC Milan Tuesday on a loan deal
until the end of the season.
Taiwo, 26, brings a wealth of experience to Loftus
Providence, RI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Big East has announced that Navy will join the conference for football only, effective for the 2015 season. Navy's addition will give the Big East 11 football schools. In December, the league brough
Olin to be Stephen F. Austin's offensive coordinator >>
Nacogdoches, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeremy Moses, the 2010 Walter Payton Award
winner, has said his former high school coach helped instill a coach's
mentality in him.
Now Moses will be reunited with Dick Olin at Stephen F. Austin.
Olin is
A's agree to terms on one-year deal with Colon >>
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oakland Athletics agreed to terms on a one-
year contract with pitcher Bartolo Colon on Tuesday.
After not pitching in the majors in 2010, the 38-year-old former Cy Young
winner returned last season w
PSG's Pastore to miss 3-4 weeks >>
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - PSG playmaker Javier Pastore suffered a thigh
muscle tear in Friday's Coupe de France win over Sable-sur-Sarthe and will be
out of action three to four weeks, the French club said Tuesday.
Pastore, 22, was t
Milwaukee's Bennett named MISL Player of Week >>
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Milwaukee Wave forward Ian Bennett was named the
Major Indoor Soccer League's Player of the Week on Tuesday for Week 12.
Bennett recorded 15 points in three games as the Wave maintained their lead in
the MISL Ce
How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
MySportsbook.com week 1 NFL lines
Now that the 2008 NFL schedule is finally out, it is only matter-of-course for lines on “Week 1” to follow. Of course MySportsbook.com is the first to churn out odds for the NFL’s inaugural week for the upcoming season. Expect a lot of fireworks the first Thursday night of the season as the defending champion Indianapolis Colts face off against the surprise of the 2008 season, the New Orleans Saints. These teams were ranked #1 and #3 in the NFL respectively a season ago so a high scoring affair could be in order. As of now, the Colts will be giving 6 points to the Saints; keep in mind the Saints were one of the better road teams last season going 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS. The first Monday night of the season will again provide a “double feature”. Coming off a disappointing season, the Cincinnati Bengals will look to get back to playoffs and improve their public image as they take on the AFC North favorite Baltimore Ravens. The second game features a couple of teams that haven’t had too much success recently but each could make some noise if the NFC is as weak as it was last year as the San Francisco 49ers host the Arizona Cardinals. The most interesting game of the opening week will feature the NFC champion Bears as they hit the road to take on the NFL’s top team during last year’s regular season, the San Diego Chargers.
MySportsbook.com Week 1 odds:
Saints +6 @ Colts -6
Falcons @ Vikings (pick ‘em)
Panthers @ Rams (pick ‘em)
Broncos -3.5 @ Bills +3.5
Chiefs -1 @ Texans +1
Dolphins +3 @ Redskins -3
Patriots -5 @ Jets +5
Eagles -3.5 @ Packers +3.5
Steelers -4 @ Browns +4
Titans +6 @ Jaguars -6
Bears +6 @ Chargers -6
Lions +3 @ Raiders -3
Bucs +6.5 @ Seahawks -6.5
Giants +4 @ Cowboys -4
Ravens +3 @ Bengals -3
Cardinals +3 @ 49ers -3
Super Bowl line (2008)
NFC +6.5 vs. AFC -6.5
MySportsbook is a large, publicly traded company with strong financial backing. You will find their customer service is second to none and their web site is extremely user friendly and easy-to-use. All major professional sports games are available. Once you signup with MySportsbook, you may never use another online sportsbook again.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football sportsbook needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.